The following are polls since 2016 on hypothetical presidential match-ups which include third-party candidates. ^ All qualifying polls released on the same calendar date as the fifth poll will also be included in the average. Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; Election 2020. In the second set, we matched these same candidates in a series of three-way contests that also included former governor Gary Johnson. 270 to win. 270 to win. Due to the need to compile nearly instantaneous results, exit pollsters rely on statistical models that may be outdated by the time an election rolls around. But, the outcome was far different. Why do some states matter more than others? “Once you realize that the exit polls aren’t perfect and start to ask yourself which results are actually right, it becomes clear that a lot of exit poll findings don’t quite work.”. Here are four possible explanations, some of them innocent — others, maybe not so much. Powered by. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. These results are automatically generated from Google. When the polls failed to accurately predict the British general election in May 2015, it took a blue ribbon panel and more than six months of work before the public had the results of a data-driven, independent inquiry in hand. How the election works. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Was it? However, no polls older than 30 days are considered in the average. (Number updated daily). PRIVACY President Barack Obama is in the evening of his eight-year presidency. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Post-debate analysis overview ABOUT US New Mexico: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein. Since the U.S. Constitution prohibits our chief executives from serving more than two terms, Obama’s name won’t be on the ballot when Americans head to the polls on November 8, 2016. Poll Date Sample MoE. These polls can drive campaign strategy: signaling to those in the lead to stay the course to maintain their standing and telling those in the back of the race that changes may be necessary to remain competitive. The original election projection website, since 2003, This year, I'm relying more than ever on readers to support Election Projection. For example, Holland explained, exit polls in other countries consist of only two questions in many cases, rather than the cumbersome list of 20 questions — or more — on U.S. exit polls. The margin of error is 4.0%. Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states. “The only way they could win was to eliminate the votes of non-white guys—and they did so by tossing black provisional ballots into the dumpster, new strict voter ID laws that saw students and low income voters turned away—the list goes on.”. POLITICO's Live 2016 Election Results and Maps by State, County and District. Hillary Clinton Clinton. Presidential election, 2016/General election polls - Google News. Thank you! These are external links and will open in a new window. Simon said that he’s reached the conclusion that due to the imprecise methodology of exit polls and the possibility of manipulation in computerized vote counts, neither system is trustworthy. Why do some states matter more than others? Note that actual vote totals are compiled as of November 16.